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UNITE! Info #312en: Will the world economy crash? (3) - Two "gasping" articles in the capitalist media

by rolf.martens@[EMAIL PROTECTED] (Rolf Martens) Mar 19, 2008 at 02:51 AM

UNITE! Info #312en:  Will the world economy crash? (3) - Two "gasping"
articles 
in the capitalist media
[Posted: 19.03.2008]

Note: The "UNITE! (etc) Info" posting series (1995-) advocates the
political 
line of Marx, Lenin and Mao Zedong. For all items, see
www.rolf-martens.com.
 
 

INTRO NOTE:

For a few factors which concern the world economy and which I know about
since 
I know something of the theory of Marxism, see item (1) in this
sub-series, 
Info #275en, of 15.03.2007. Many other things concerning that economy
remain as 
much a mystery to me as probably to most or perhaps even all others.

In item (2) of this sub-series, Info #305en, of 28.01.2008, I reproduced
in 
full an article which had appeared in the Boston Globe, the USA, the day 
before, entitled "The black box economy", which seemed to me to be
im****tant. 
Its main thesis was, that what was happening with the US and also the
world 
economy was by necessity shrouded in such enormous clouds of mystery that
not 
even the most professional (capitalist-employed) experts could see through

them. (I, for instance, thus had lots of company in this, it was
maintained.)

Here I'm reproducing, without further comment (and only a reference again
to 
Info #275en, where I wrote down those things concerning this enormous
subject 
which I think I do know), two articles which appeared yesterday
18.03.2008, 
after what one financial-markets-investigating e-zine, The Daily Reckoning

(UK-based; website at http://www.dailyreckoning.com/)
the same day called 

"Hell Week", specifying this with "A hellish week thus far…entering a
scarier, 
uglier phase of the cycle…". Their titles are "Closer to a Financial
Meltdown" 
respectively "Bear Stern's Collapse Is Tip of Iceberg". 

[http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/issues.aspx?Closer-to-a-Financial-Meltdown-1558

http://blogs.salon.com/0002255/2008/03/18.html]

Though the first of these articles is rather long and detailed, I think it
may 
be of interest to some others than the so-called experts on the economy
anyway.

NB: Those links which appear in the articles as reproduced below don't
work. 
For using them, you need go to the addresses of the respective original 
articles.



[QUOTE:]
 

Closer to a Financial Meltdown  

by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. — updated 10:35am — 03-17-08


Last night, when Ben Bernanke cut the discount rate ... made a loan of $30

billion to cement the Bear Stearns buy-out ... and flung open the Fed's
coffers 
to the next major investment banks that may be on the brink of failure ...
he 
must have thought that investors around the world would applaud his
actions.

Not quite! 

Overseas investors didn't exactly like the idea that the value of Bear
Stearns 
fell about 90% over the weekend. 

Nor did they look very kindly on the fact that, for every dollar of loan
money 
that the Fed put up for Bear Stearns, JPMorgan Chase is putting up less
than a 
penny of capital. 

And they're downright terrified about the inflationary implications of the

Fed's monetizing hundreds of billions of dollars in private debt.

Last week's near-collapse of Bear Stearns has brought us closer to a
financial 
meltdown than at any time in our lifetime. 

And for the first time, the mainstream media is recognizing the real
dangers 
that Mike Larson and I have been warning you about for so long: 

The New York Times, for example, headlines the "run on big Wall Street
bank" 
and "a Wall Street domino theory." 

Bloomberg says Fed Chairman Bernanke was forced to "throw out four decades
of 
monetary history by a financial system choking on miscalculated risks and
a 
deepening recession." 

And The Wall Street Journal asks:

"Does the move by Bear suggest the markets are closer to their nightmare 
scenario, in which doubts about financial companies that serve as 
counterparties in billions of dollars of transactions suddenly freeze
trading, 
or force investors to unwind existing trades, causing a domino effect that

cripples the markets?"

The media — and the authorities — are asking the right questions. But they
dare 
not provide answers. 

They think about possible consequences, but talk only about probable
causes. 

They frequently worry about how to protect their own families from future 
scenarios, but usually believe their job is to "protect the public" from 
knowledge of present realities. 

They rarely mention the next likely victims ... never tell you what the
domino 
theory might lead to ... and never guide you to true safety. We do. And
this 
morning, we will again. 


The Containment Myth

Last June, when Bear Stearns was the first major firm to announce 
multi-billion-dollar losses from the subprime mess, Wall Street and
Wa****ngton 
made a tacit pact — to persuade the world that Bear Stearns was "alone,"
and to 
artificially create a fantasy world in which "the crisis was contained." 

But from the facts Mike Larson brought out before and after June of last
year — 
on subprime lending, the housing crisis, the broader financial crisis and
the 
likelihood of an S&L-type meltdown — it was obvious that Bear Stearns was
not 
alone; the crisis, not contained. 

Precisely as Mike warned, in the days and months that followed, America's 
largest banks and brokers revealed subprime losses that greatly exceeded
those 
of Bear Stearns: First HSBC ... then Merrill Lynch, Citibank, UBS and many

others. 

And sure enough, the estimates of the industry's total losses continued to

escalate with each new revelation: First, Wall Street analysts said it
would be 
under $50 billion. Then, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said it could be as
much as 
$100 billion. Next, the OECD estimated it could reach $300 billion. And
now, 
even estimates as high as $1 trillion do not draw widespread criticism. 

But despite all the revelations and shocks, no major Wall Street firm
confessed 
to its gambling habits. None admitted its debt addiction. None seemed to 
realize that the first step toward resolving a problem is recognizing its
very 
existence. 

Each time, the truth was suppressed. And each time, when the reality was 
finally revealed, the public was shocked, caught off guard and left
wondering 
who the next victim might be. 


No Lessons Learned 

Now, at long last, looking back at the truths — and deceptions — revealed
in 
recent months, you'd think someone might have learned a lesson from this 
experience. 

Instead, here we ago again in a typical 1-2-3 pattern ...

Like June of last year, Bear Stearns is the first to reveal a disaster.

Like last year, the authorities have been huddling through the weekend,
****ing 
over Bear Stearns' books. And ...

Like always, they are trying to come up with a story to spin the facts. 

But this is not June of 2007, when it was still easy to fool most
investors 
most of the time. Too much has changed too quickly, and the crisis has
already 
progressed to a more advanced phase. Now ...

Revelations of big losses are being replaced by fears of big bankruptcies.

The collapse of subprime mortgages has been replaced by the collapse of
nearly 
all major credit markets.

And most worrisome of all, these fears and collapses are threatening to
freeze 
up the greatest grand casino of all: Derivatives. 


The Truth and Consequences 
Of $172 Trillion in Derivatives

Derivatives are essentially bets ... and ... debts. 

As an illustration, if you and I were players, I could bet you that a 
particular firm will go bankrupt between now and year-end ... and you
could bet 
me that it won't. 

Or I could bet you that interest rates on junk bonds will rise more than 
interest rates on Treasury bonds ... and you could bet they will rise
less, or 
not rise at all. 

We could bet on virtually any market that moves, or even bet that it won't

move. 

For each wager, we'd likely borrow huge amounts of other people's money.
And in 
each case, we'd have a contractual obligation (or right) to consummate the

deal: To pay up if we lose (or collect if we win). 

That's the essence of each transaction in the frenzied, hectic world of 
derivatives. 

But what was once a small sideshow in the traditional world of stocks,
bonds 
and loans has become the towering center ring in the big-top: The
derivatives 
market has now ballooned into a monster of unimaginable dimensions. 

At U.S. commercial banks alone, the total notional value of the
derivatives is 
$172.2 trillion, according to the latest re****t by the U.S. Comptroller of
the 
Currency (OCC). Plus, the OCC re****ts that:

In over 90% of these derivatives, there is no established exchange that
helps 
protect either party from default.

Just FIVE major U.S. banks control 97% of all the bank-held derivatives in
the 
United States, a concentration of power — and risk — unsurpassed in the
history 
of finance.

All five of these major players would likely be severely crippled, or even

bankrupted, by the default of just a few major counterparties like Bear 
Stearns.

Four have more credit exposure to counterparty defaults than they have
capital.

Two have over four times more credit exposure than capital. (More details
in a 
moment.) 


The Potential Damage of Bear Stearns' Demise
Today Is Far Bigger Than the Feared Impact of 
Long Term Capital Management's Fall in 1998.

Ironically, the OCC has been re****ting large numbers for a long time, and
we've 
been bringing them to your attention from the very outset. 

But it wasn't until about 10 years ago that you saw the first widely
recognized 
threat to the derivatives bubble: The demise of Long Term Capital
Management. 

Long Term Capital was simply a hedge fund, far off the radar screen of
most 
investors. It was also relatively small. 

Nevertheless, the potential damage it could cause was obvious: It had its 
tentacles in enough large Wall Street firms that it was widely agreed its 
collapse could trigger a financial meltdown similar to the one feared
today. 
And that fear was seen as serious enough to warrant an emergency
intervention 
by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, much as occurred last Friday. 

But the differences between 1998 and today are equally obvious: 

Bear Stearns is many times larger than Long Term Capital ever was, or
could 
have dreamed of becoming.

Bear Stearns has bigger, more varied and more complex linkages to other
major 
Wall Street firms than Long Term Capital ever had, or could have dreamed
of 
creating.

Bear Stearn's demise is just one aspect of a massive U.S. credit market 
collapse that makes the problems of 1998 pale by comparison.

This time, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is doing far more than
just 
orchestrate an industry rescue. It's directly providing the bailout funds
to 
cover the bad assets, while JPMorgan Chase walks off with the rest.

And since 1998, the total notional amount of derivatives held by U.S.
banks has 
more than tripled! 

So last night's moves by the Fed come as no surprise. Nor will it be a
surprise 
if the Fed announces a bigger-than-expected rate cut tomorrow.

So in the days ahead, don't be surprised by new announcements of "big,
bold 
steps" being taken by Wa****ngton and Wall Street. Also don't be surprised
by a 
bigger-than-expected rate cut by the Fed tomorrow. 

But throughout it all, don't let them fool you when they again put out the
word 
that "Bear Stearns is alone" or that "the crisis is contained."

Not true.


Why JPMorgan Chase Is 
Among the Most Vulnerable

Logic alone dictates that containing the crisis is highly unlikely. Let me
walk 
you through the facts, and you'll see what I mean ...

All major Wall Street firms engage in the same kind of trading strategies
that 
entrapped Bear Stearns.

All use the same kind of high-powered leverage that sunk Bear Stearns.

And perhaps most im****tant, all are joined at the hip to each other as 
counterparties (trading partners) in derivatives, including Bear Stearns. 

Indeed, even as you read these words, derivatives are emerging as the new
core 
of the crisis. And derivatives are definitely not limited to Bear Stearns.


Among investment banks that do not re****t to the Fed, the biggest players
are 
Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. 

And among those who do re****t to the Fed, the five dominant players in 
derivatives that I mentioned a moment ago are Citibank, Bank of America, 
Wachovia, HSBC and the biggest of them all: JPMorgan Chase. 

We believe all are vulnerable, in varying degrees, to the kind of crisis
that 
struck Bear Stearns last week. 

We believe JPMorgan Chase could ultimately be the most vulnerable. 

And we believe this may help explain why JPMorgan Chase is the Wall Street
firm 
that's buying Bear Stearns. If they didn't, and Bear Stearns defaulted on
its 
derivatives, JPMorgan is the firm that would have the most to lose.

But you don't have to take our word for it. Nor do you have to look very
far to 
validate our view. All you have to do is ...

Click on this link to pull up the latest derivatives re****t by the U.S. 
Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) ...

Scroll down (about 24 pages) to Table 1, "Notional Amount of Derivatives 
Contracts" ...

Take one look at who's at the top of that chart — JPMorgan Chase — and see
for 
yourself the unimaginably large quantities of derivatives it is trading. 

Wait. We'll make it easier for you. Here's the guts of the OCC's Table 1, 
showing just the top five players and excluding a few of the less
im****tant 
columns:

[Note: This table is not reproduced in this text do***ent version of this
Info. 
To see it, go to the original article's address, 
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/issues.aspx?Closer-to-a-Financial-Meltdown-1558,

or to my homepge. - RM]  

The undeniable truth: In the grand casino of derivatives trading, JPMorgan

Chase is overwhelmingly and unabashedly the biggest player of them all. As
you 
can plainly see in the table above, it controls ...

$91.7 trillion in derivatives, or over 53% of all derivatives held by U.S.

commercial banks, among which are ...

nearly $7.8 trillion in the oft-inflammable credit derivatives, or 55.6%
of the 
total.

And all with little more than $1.2 trillion in assets! 

Or scroll back up a few pages in the OCC's re****t to the table under Graph
5A, 
which I've also reproduced here: 

[Note: This table is not reproduced in this text do***ent version of this
Info. 
To see it, go to the original article's address, 
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/issues.aspx?Closer-to-a-Financial-Meltdown-1558,

or to my homepge. - RM]

The table shows how much each bank has in credit exposure to defaults by 
trading partners (like a Bear Stearns). And it measures that credit
exposure in 
pro****tion to the bank's capital. For each one dollar of its capital ... 

Wachovia has 83.3 cents in exposure ...

Bank of America has $1.12 in exposure ...

Citibank has nearly $2.53 in exposure, and ...

JPMorgan Chase has more than $4.16 in exposure! 

In other words, if its counterparties default, JPMorgan Chase's capital
could 
be wiped out more than four times over. 

Now, HSBC's exposure is greater. But that reflects strictly its U.S. 
operations. Overseas, recent profits indicate that it's in a relatively 
stronger position. That leaves JPMorgan Chase as the most vulnerable, in
our 
view. 


Two Scenarios

Too many pundits assume that simply because a future scenario is
unimaginable, 
it must therefore be impossible. 

But the pattern of human events has never before been bound by the limits
of 
someone's imagination; and it never will be. Anything can happen. To some 
degree, anything will happen. 

We foresee two scenarios: 


Scenario A
The Greatest Federal
Bailouts of All Time
Create Rampant Inflation

In this scenario, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke continues to do precisely what

yesterday's New York Times says he has already been doing since last year:


Tossing out the rule book of monetary policy,

Abandoning his prior concerns about the moral hazard of financial
bailouts,

Inventing new policy on the fly, and ...

Creating history's greatest and most radical money-pumping machines —$100 
billion per month in loans to banks in exchange for shaky collateral ...
an 
extra $100 billion in money infusions announced on March 7 ... an
additional 
$200 billion in loans to brokers in exchange for sinking mortgage bonds
... and 
more. 

Ironically, though, in this scenario, despite all of the money pumping
already 
in the pipeline, the loudest voices will be those who cry out for even
more. 

They will be voices like ...

Citigroup's economists who bemoaned on Friday "the self-feeding downturn
now in 
place" and who forecast a Fed rate cut tomorrow of a full percentage
point. Or 
....

Merrill Lynch's chief economist who argued that the Fed's policy so far
"does 
not address underlying credit problems, does not materially improve the 
solvency of the institutions exposed to assets under stress, and does
nothing 
to put a floor under home prices." The implication: Bernanke must do much
more. 

But Gretchen Morgenson, also writing in yesterday's New York Times, leaves

little doubt as to the ultimate price to be paid for Bernanke's new
follies:

"What are the consequences of a world in which regulators rescue even the 
financial institutions whose recklessness and greed helped create the
titanic 
credit mess we are in? Will the consequences be an even weaker currency, 
rampant inflation, a continuation of the slow bleed that we have witnessed
at 
banks and brokerage firms for the past year? Or all of the above?

"Stick around, because we'll soon find out. And it's not going to be
pretty."

No. It's not. 

That's why this scenario — the greatest federal bailout of all time — 
inevitably comes with the most rampant inflation we've seen in our
lifetime. 
And it has already begun. 


Scenario B
Financial Meltdown 

This is the scenario that nearly everyone on Wall Street is thinking about
... 
but virtually no one dares talk about. They can't imagine what it would be

like. Or they fear that the mere discussion of its possibility will bring
it 
closer to a probability. 

But nothing could be further from the truth. 

When unreasonable people conjure up future events with no basis in fact,
it's 
never taken seriously enough to notably alter the script of history. By
the 
same token, when there is concrete evidence of a future disaster,
realistically 
exploring its ultimate consequences can only help the actors prepare for
the 
future. 

I'm talking about the possibility of a wholesale market shutdown. 

On a much smaller scale, you've already seen bits and pieces of something
akin 
to this phenomenon. You've seen stocks stop trading in the wake — or in 
anticipation — of major news. You've seen futures stop trading when a 
particular market rises or falls by the daily allowable limit.

And on a broader scale, history has seen the nation's banks declare an
extended 
holiday, the nation's stock exchanges close down for a week or more, and a

particular industry shut down for extended strikes. 

Now, put those together and try to visualize a similar situation on a
national 
scale. 

Why? Because the entire country runs on credit. But in a financial
meltdown, 
the essence of credit — trust — is destroyed. Therefore, the country
cannot 
run. It must shut down tem****arily while the authorities sort out the mess
and 
come up with a plan that can restore that trust. 

Is this likely? It's too soon to say. But there's one thing we do know: 

It was precisely to avoid such a scenario that Mr. Bernanke has abandoned
the 
Fed's rules and loaned money to banks in exchange for bad collateral ... 
trashed the rules again to loan even more to brokers ... and thrown the
entire 
Fed rule book into the Potomac by bailing out Bear Stearns on Friday. 

And that's why Mr. Bernanke has vowed to continue doing everything in his
power 
to prevent more dominoes from tumbling. 

The ultimate question is: Is his power enough? 


Your Best Defense and Offense

I sent you a Money and Markets flash on Friday afternoon with some
specific 
steps to take:

Step 1. If you own vulnerable assets, don't be afraid to dump them. If
you're 
taking a profit, pay the taxes. If you're taking a loss, bite the bullet
and 
move on. In either case, just sell. And if you have a personal adviser, be
sure 
to work as a team to reduce your exposure. 

Step 2. Get your money to safety as quickly as possible. Years ago, for
maximum 
safety and liquidity, short-term U.S. Treasury bills would have been all
you 
needed. Today, given the threat to the dollar, we feel you need a prudent 
balance among:

U.S. Treasury bills or Treasury-only money market funds such as American 
Century Capital Preservation Fund (CPFXX), Dreyfus 100% U.S. Treasury
Money 
Market Fund (DUSXX), Fidelity U.S. Treasury Money Market Fund (FDLXX) and
Weiss 
Treasury Only Money Fund (WEOXX) plus ...

Strong foreign currencies like the CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust
(FXY), 
plus ...

Gold, using an ETF like streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD). 

Step 3. For protection — and profit — seriously consider inverse ETFs. For

months now, we've been sending readers a link to my special re****t on what
they 
are, who they are and how to use them. We've posted it prominently on our
Web 
page. And we have made it free. 

Did you use it to build a firewall of protection around you? If so, great.
If 
not, what are you waiting for? 

The title is How to Protect Your Stock ****tfolio From the Spreading Credit

Crunch.

To review it now, along with the accompanying list of inverse ETFs, just
pull 
it up on your screen with this link:

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/files/do***ents/MAM767_Special_Re****t.pdf


A Final Thought

I leave you with one last thought you should never forget: No matter how
dark 
things get in the days and weeks ahead, it's not the end of the world. Our

country has been through worse, and we survived, even thrived. 

You can do the same, especially if you take prudent, protective action
today. 

Good luck and God bless! 

Martin 



About Money and Markets 

For more information and archived issues, visit
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written
by 
Martin D. Weiss along with Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson,
Nilus 
Mattive, Tony Sagami, and Jack Crooks. To avoid conflicts of interest,
Weiss 
Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in
MaM, 
nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, 
graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose 
accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited
are 
derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as
much 
as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular 
contributors and staff include John Burke, Amber Dakar, Adam Shafer,
Andrea 
Baumwald, Kristen Adams, Maryellen Murphy, Red Morgan, Jennifer
Newman-Amos, 
Julie Trudeau, and Dinesh Kalera.

Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be
republished. 
Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the
following 
short paragraph:

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and
Markets 
is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss
Research 
analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the

stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and
oil. 
Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates,
financial 
safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit 
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

From time to time, Money and Markets may have information from select 
third-party advertisers known as "external sponsor****ps." We cannot
guarantee 
the accuracy of these ads. In addition, these ads do not necessarily
express 
the viewpoints of Money and Markets or its editors. For more information,
see 
our terms and conditions.

© 2008 by Weiss Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 15430 Endeavour Drive,

Jupiter, FL 33478
 

[END OF QUOTE]





[QUOTE:]

   
Allen L Roland's Radio Weblog
My ongoing theme is always the truth , as I see it , and the exposure of
lies, 
deception and manipulation wherever they exist. I remain firmly convinced
that 
the world can no longer resist its innate urge to unite and co-operate
with one 
another and we are very close to the point where war can no longer be an
option 
if this transformation is to occur. Website: allenroland.com Email: 
allen@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
  Last updated:

3/18/2008; 9:10:07 AM  


E-mail this blog's author, Allen L Roland:


Tuesday, March 18, 2008 
BEAR STEARN'S COLLAPSE IS TIP OF ICEBERG
 

BEAR STEARN'S COLLAPSE IS TIP OF ICEBERG 

Wall street is a giant casino and Bear Stearn's demise is just the tip of
the 
iceberg of a potential complete financial meltdown led by the collapse of
the 
greatest crap shoot of them all ~ Derivatives : Allen L Roland 

As Andrew Leonard wrote yesterday in Salon ~ " A couple of things to bear
in 
mind while we watch and see what transpires this week. First: Bear Stearns
was 
the canary in the coal mine. That canary is now dead. " 

Wall street can no longer hide the ugly excesses of the subprime mortgage 
markets or the present collapse of most major credit markets but the
looming 
tsunami which could bring down the whole house of cards is the collapse of
the 
$172 trillion dollar derivative market.

Martin Weiss, Money and Markets, explains the risk of Derivatives and
names the 
principle players in the greatest Wall Street crap shoot of them all ~ and
very 
possibly the core of the present crisis.

Allen L Roland http://blogs.salon.com/0002255/2008/03/18.html

 
Closer to a Financial Meltdown 
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. 
No Lessons Learned 

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/issues.aspx?Closer-to-a-Financial-Meltdown-1558

Excerpt: "Now, at long last, looking back at the truths ~ and deceptions ~

revealed in recent months, you'd think someone might have learned a lesson
from 
this experience. 

Instead, here we ago again in a typical 1-2-3 pattern ...

Like June of last year, Bear Stearns is the first to reveal a disaster.

Like last year, the authorities have been huddling through the weekend,
****ing 
over Bear Stearns' books. And ...

Like always, they are trying to come up with a story to spin the facts. 

But this is not June of 2007, when it was still easy to fool most
investors 
most of the time. Too much has changed too quickly, and the crisis has
already 
progressed to a more advanced phase. Now ...

Revelations of big losses are being replaced by fears of big bankruptcies.

The collapse of subprime mortgages has been replaced by the collapse of
nearly 
all major credit markets.

And most worrisome of all, these fears and collapses are threatening to
freeze 
up the greatest grand casino of all: Derivatives. 


The Truth and Consequences 
Of $172 Trillion in Derivatives

Derivatives are essentially bets ... and ... debts. 

As an illustration, if you and I were players, I could bet you that a 
particular firm will go bankrupt between now and year-end ... and you
could bet 
me that it won't. 

Or I could bet you that interest rates on junk bonds will rise more than 
interest rates on Treasury bonds ... and you could bet they will rise
less, or 
not rise at all. 

We could bet on virtually any market that moves, or even bet that it won't

move. 

For each wager, we'd likely borrow huge amounts of other people's money.
And in 
each case, we'd have a contractual obligation (or right) to consummate the

deal: To pay up if we lose (or collect if we win). 

That's the essence of each transaction in the frenzied, hectic world of 
derivatives. 

But what was once a small sideshow in the traditional world of stocks,
bonds 
and loans has become the towering center ring in the big-top: The
derivatives 
market has now ballooned into a monster of unimaginable dimensions. 

At U.S. commercial banks alone, the total national value of the
derivatives is 
$172.2 trillion, according to the latest re****t by the U.S. Comptroller of
the 
Currency (OCC). Plus, the OCC re****ts that:

In over 90% of these derivatives, there is no established exchange that
helps 
protect either party from default.

Just FIVE major U.S. banks control 97% of all the bank-held derivatives in
the 
United States, a concentration of power and risk unsurpassed in the
history of 
finance.

All five of these major players would likely be severely crippled, or even

bankrupted, by the default of just a few major counterparties like Bear 
Stearns.

Four have more credit exposure to counterparty defaults than they have
capital.

Two have over four times more credit exposure than capital. (More details
in a 
moment.) 


The Potential Damage of Bear Stearns' Demise
Today Is Far Bigger Than the Feared Impact of 
Long Term Capital Management's Fall in 1998.

So in the days ahead, don't be surprised by new announcements of "big,
bold 
steps" being taken by Wa****ngton and Wall Street. Also don't be surprised
by a 
bigger-than-expected rate cut by the Fed today. 

But throughout it all, don't let them fool you when they again put out the
word 
that "Bear Stearns is alone" or that "the crisis is contained."

Not true.


Why JPMorgan Chase Is 
Among the Most Vulnerable

Logic alone dictates that containing the crisis is highly unlikely. Let me
walk 
you through the facts, and you'll see what I mean ...

All major Wall Street firms engage in the same kind of trading strategies
that 
entrapped Bear Stearns.

All use the same kind of high-powered leverage that sunk Bear Stearns.

And perhaps most im****tant, all are joined at the hip to each other as 
counterparties (trading partners) in derivatives, including Bear Stearns. 

Indeed, even as you read these words, derivatives are emerging as the new
core 
of the crisis. And derivatives are definitely not limited to Bear Stearns.


Among investment banks that do not re****t to the Fed, the biggest players
are 
Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. 

And among those who do re****t to the Fed, the five dominant players in 
derivatives that I mentioned a moment ago are Citibank, Bank of America, 
Wachovia, HSBC and the biggest of them all: JPMorgan Chase. 

We believe all are vulnerable, in varying degrees, to the kind of crisis
that 
struck Bear Stearns last week. 

We believe JPMorgan Chase could ultimately be the most vulnerable. 

And we believe this may help explain why JPMorgan Chase was the Wall
Street 
firm that emerged as a participant in the Bear Stearns rescue on Friday. "

Allen L Roland      http://blogs.salon.com/0002255/2008/03/18.html

Freelance Online columnist and recognized therapist Allen L  Roland is 
available for comments, interviews, speaking engagements and private 
consultations ( allen@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
 )  
 
Allen L Roland is a practicing psychotherapist, author and lecturer who
also 
shares a daily political and social commentary on his weblog and website 
allenroland.com He also guest hosts a monthly national radio show
TRUTHTALK on  
www.conscioustalk.net
  
 
Allen Roland’s weblog: http://blogs.salon.com/0002255/
Website: www.allenroland.com
ONLY THE TRUTH IS REVOLUTIONARY
 
© Copyright 2008 Allen L Roland. 
Last update: 3/18/2008; 9:10:14 AM.
 
  
[END OF QUOTE]


_____________________

Message posted by:
Rolf Martens
Malmö, Sweden
Phone and fax:
+46 - 40 - 124832;
rolf.martens@[EMAIL PROTECTED]

 




 1 Posts in Topic:
UNITE! Info #312en: Will the world economy crash? (3) - Two "ga
rolf.martens@[EMAIL PROTE  2008-03-19 02:51:15 

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tan12V112 Thu Jul 24 1:15:40 CDT 2008.