Expert Reconsiders Global Warming Impact
Houston Chronicle
One of the most influential scientists behind the theory that global
warming
has intensified recent hurricane activity says he will reconsider his
stand.
The hurricane expert, Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, unveiled a novel technique for predicting future hurricane
activity this week. The new work suggests that, even in a dramatically
warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially
rise
during the next two centuries. The research, appearing in the March issue
of
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is all the more
remarkable
coming from Emanuel, a highly visible leader in his field and long an
ardent
proponent of a link between global warming and much stronger hurricanes.
His
changing views could influence other scientists. "The results surprised
me,"
Emanuel said of his work, adding that global warming may still play a role
in raising the intensity of hurricanes. What that role is, however,
remains
far from certain. Emanuel's work uses a new method of computer modeling
that
did a reasonable job of simulating past hurricane fluctuations. He,
therefore, believes the models may have predictive value for future
activity.
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