By: John F. Harris and Josh Kraushaar
May 15, 2008
For the past 18 months, ever since the 2006 elections, congressional
Republicans have been like a hospital patient trying to convince
visitors that he is not really all that sick: a bit under the weather;
actually feel better than I sound; should be up and about any day;
thanks for asking.
Suddenly =97 belatedly =97 all pretense is gone.
The Republican defeat in Tuesday=92s special election in Mississippi, in
a deeply conservative district where, in an average year, Democrats
cannot even compete, was a clear sign that the GOP has the political
equivalent of cancer that has spread throughout the body. Many House
GOP operatives are privately predicting that the party could easily
lose up to 20 seats this fall.
Combined with the 30 seats that the GOP lost in 2006, that would leave
the party facing a 70-vote deficit against Democrats in the House =97 a
state of powerlessness reminiscent of Republicans=92 long wilderness
years in the 1960s and =9270s.
Things are not particularly more hopeful on the Senate side, where
most analysts say Democrats have a strong chance of adding five or
more seats to their current majority.
Panic and blame-casting for the dire condition were flowing in equal
measures Wednesday inside the House Republican Conference and among
party elders and operatives outside.
In the crossfire, there was a bracing new spirit of candor that has
largely been missing since 2006, when many Republicans tried to
convince the public =97 and perhaps themselves =97 that the defeat was the
result of tem****ary setbacks, such as the House page scandal or bad
headlines for Tom DeLay, rather than something more fundamental.
=93The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is
the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than the fall of 2006,
when we lost 30 seats (and our majority) and came within a couple of
percentage points of losing another 15 seats,=94 Rep. Tom Davis, a
moderate Northern Virginia Republican who previously headed the
National Republican Congressional Committee, wrote in a 20-page memo
to colleagues.
Former Rep. Mickey Edwards, an Oklahoma Republican, said: =93I don=92t
know that I have seen a year like this, ever. The general attitude
toward Republicans is so bad nationally.=94
By coincidence, the current NRCC chairman =97 Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.),
the target of much finger-pointing for his strategy =97 got his start in
politics as a young aide to Edwards. Like many in his party, Edwards
said the GOP=92s main hope for avoiding a blowout this fall rests in
having candidates liberate themselves from their national party label
and run on local issues.
But that is easier said than done. The Mississippi district won by
Travis Childers is the third consecutive Republican-leaning district
that Democrats have won in a special election this year.
Party strategists, most of whom spoke anonymously, said the
implications of this record reverberate in all manner of ways that are
not necessarily obvious at first blush.
Newly vulnerable Republicans: Suddenly, all sorts of districts that in
typical years should be safe for the GOP, no matter the national
trend, are clearly in jeopardy.
Those seats include the open seats of retiring Reps. Kenny Hulshof in
northeast Missouri, Jim McCrery in northwest Louisiana, Steve Pearce
in rural New Mexico and Terry Everett in Alabama.
Democrats breathing easy: Some of the freshman Democrats who were once
viewed as highly vulnerable in their reelection bids are now looking
to be in surprisingly good shape. Republicans haven=92t been able to
field credible recruits against freshman Democratic Reps. John Hall of
New York, Brad Ellsworth of Indiana, Heath Shuler of North Carolina
and Zack Space of Ohio =97 all of whom represent traditionally GOP
districts that the party lost in the 2006 election.
One of the Republicans=92 perennial targets, Rep. Melissa L. Bean (D-
Ill.), is now heavily favored to win reelection after her once highly
touted Republican challenger re****ted a near-empty campaign account at
the end of March.
Money meltdown: The NRCC has now spent about $3 million to defend
three House seats in the most conservative parts of the county =97
Dennis Hastert=92s seat in exurban Chicago, Richard Baker=92s seat in the
Baton Rouge, La., area and Roger Wicker=92s seat in northeast
Mississippi. Until this year, Republicans rarely had to break a sweat
to hold on to these seats. They have now lost all three of them, and
the committee is even less-equipped financially to compete fully in an
ever-widening playing field for November.
That $3 million total is about 42 percent of all cash on hand the
committee re****ted at the end of March (in its latest filing). The
playing field of competitive races in 2008 will comprise at least 40
seats, and possibly as many as 70. The committee just does not have
money to help its stronger candidates =97 and it won=92t even have enough
money to help all of its vulnerable in***bents.
What=92s more, in fundraising, just as success breeds more success,
defeat is self-reinforcing. With the clear signs of how much trouble
the party is in, it is going to be harder than ever to persuade donors
to open their wallets on behalf of candidates this fall.
=93If I=92m those members, I=92m very concerned. You look at what the NRCC
spent last cycle in those races =97 who=92s going to do that next time?
All these Republicans are used to having more money; they=92ve never
been in a situation where Democrats have been able to outspend them,=94
said a top GOP strategist.
Heading for the hills: Plainly, there are large headwinds blowing that
no operative or party leader, no matter how skilled, could counteract.
But this fact does not mean that Cole and his team have not made
matters worse through what many Republican members see as poor
fundraising and candidate recruitment, as well as faulty judgments
about message and resource allocation.
The second-guessing on the Republican side is going to make it
virtually impossible for leaders to impose any kind of discipline on
their caucus when it comes to showdown votes in 2008 or to running on
a unified message. At times such as this, it is every man and woman
for themselves =97 plainly the smartest move for individuals but not
necessarily for the party as a whole.
=93It is not beyond the realm of possibility that we could be down to
170 seats. It=92s like back to where we were in the =9280s,=94 said an
aide
to a top GOP lawmaker. =93The only solace we=92ll have is maybe we can run
against [Barack] Obama in 2010.=94
David Mark contributed to this story.
--------------
OK... now that the GOP leaders "get it"... did they "get it" too damn
late?
-C-
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