Iraq Issue Could Destroy Democrats
Monday, May 5, 2008 2:23 PM
By: Dick Morris & Eileen McGann
Bill O'Reilly asked Hillary Clinton the key question about the war in
Iraq: What happens if we pull out and the Iranians move in?
She talked around the issue, but never gave a convincing answer to
O'Reilly's question. She said she would replace force with diplomacy.
But, as Frederick the Great said, =93Diplomacy without force is like
music without instruments.=94 If our troops are long gone from Iraq, the
Iranians will snub our diplomacy and laugh at our entireties. They
will add Iraq to their other trophies in the region: Syria, Lebanon,
and Gaza.
Hillary's inability to answer O'Reilly's question reveals a larger
flaw in the Democratic arguments as the election approaches. Obama
will be the Democratic nominee (take that to the bank). How will the
Iraq war play in the race?
On the surface, it would appear to be a disaster for the Republicans.
With American deaths now over the 4,000 mark and the seriously wounded
at around 15,000, we are sick and tired of this war. It has destroyed
George W. Bush and could well do the same to John McCain.
But maybe not. McCain's position is simple: win in Iraq. The
experience and the success of the past year indicate that it may be
quite possible to do so. But, whatever you may think of it, his is a
simple solution.
What do the Democrats propose?
Obama and Hillary both want to pull out as soon as technically
feasible.
OK. But what happens if Iran moves into the vacuum and takes over
Iraq? And what if al-Qaida takes advantage of the American absence and
sets up a permanent base and sanctuary in Iraq, beyond our reach =97 a
situation akin to the Taliban in Afghanistan where they could develop
the capacity to hit us on 9/11 in their privileged, protected home
territory? And what if hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who used to
work with us start to be killed as happened when we pulled out of
Vietnam? And what if the Iraqi oil falls into Iranian hands, sending
the price even higher? And what if =85 The list goes on.
Obama really has no answer for these questions. Once he pulls out of
Iraq, it will be politically impossible to go back in. Iran and al-
Qaida both realize this just as North Vietnam knew it when they
negotiated an end to American troop presence in the South.
In the context of an election debate, Obama is going to look weak and
confused and without a clue as he tries to address these =93what ifs.=94
Americans will sense the uncertain hand on the helm and will begin to
second guess their decisions and move toward McCain.
If, by some chance, Hillary is the nominee, then the same problem will
land in her lap and she showed in trying to parry O'Reilly's thrust,
that she won't be any better at answering the doubts than Obama would
be.
The truth is that the Democrats are ca****ng in on a mindless
impatience with Iraq and an unwillingness to think through the
consequences of pulling out.
They are capitalizing on an emotional =93no=94 in reaction to the war. But
when the alternatives are carefully explained and examined, as they
will be in a presidential debate, they are not going to embrace the
answers Obama or Hillary will have to the =93what ifs.=94
They will see the Democratic position as extremist and unworkable and
will come to see the Democratic candidate who is pu****ng them as
unprepared and unrealistic. If the candidate is Obama, their concerns
will resonate with their perception that he is inexperienced and
doesn't know his way around foreign policy.
This will raise more and more doubts about his ability to lead us in a
time of crisis.
This unholy mess in Iraq, which has almost destroyed the Republican
Party and has destroyed the Bush presidency, may yet rebound and work
against the Democrats in the election this year.
=A9 2008 Dick Morris & Eileen McGann
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