May 15, 2008
Republican Election Losses Stir Fall Fears
By ADAM NAGOURNEY and CARL HULSE
WA****NGTON - The Republican defeat in a special Congressional contest in
Mississippi sent waves of apprehension across an already troubled party
Wednesday, with some senior Republicans urging Congressional candidates to
distance themselves from President Bush to head off what could be heavy
losses in the fall.
The victory by Travis Childers, a conservative Democrat elected in a
once-steadfast Republican district on Tuesday, was the third defeat of a
Republican in a special Congressional race this year. In addition to
foreshadowing more losses for the party in November, the outcome appeared
to
call into question the belief that Senator Barack Obama of Illinois could
be
a heavy liability for his party's down-ticket candidates in conservative
regions.
Republicans had sought to link Mr. Childers to Mr. Obama in an advertising
campaign there. Republican leaders said they were looking to Senator John
McCain of Arizona, the likely Republican nominee, as a model whose
independent reputation appears to allow him to rise above party in a year
when the Republican label seems tarnished.
But Mr. McCain's advisers said the Mississippi race underlined his
intention
to distance himself as much as possible from Congressional Republicans.
Mr.
McCain has already been openly critical of some of President Bush's
strategies.
The level of distress was evident in remarks by senior party officials
throughout the day.
"This was a real wake-up call for us," Robert M. Duncan, the chairman of
the
Republican National Committee, said in an interview. "We can't let the
Democrats take our issues. We can't let them pretend to be conservatives
and
co-opt the middle and win these elections. We have to get the attention of
our incumbents and candidates and make sure they understand this."
Representative Tom Davis, Republican of Virginia and former leader of his
party's Congressional campaign committee, issued a dire warning that the
Republican Party had been severely damaged, in no small part because of
its
identification with President Bush. Mr. Davis said that, unless Republican
candidates changed course, they could lose 20 seats in the House and 6 in
the Senate.
"They are canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the
fall, if steps are not taken to remedy the current climate," Mr. Davis
said
in a memorandum. "The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this
November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than it was in
2006."
The result in Mississippi, and what Republicans said was a surge in
African-American turnout, suggested that Mr. Obama might have the effect
of
putting into play Southern seats that were once solidly Republican, rather
than dragging down Democratic candidates.
Mr. McCain acknowledged the difficulties he and other Republicans face in
this political environment. Asked at a news conference on Wednesday in
Columbus, Ohio, if the string of Republican losses suggested a problem
with
the Republican label and if he was worried it would spill over to him in
November, Mr. McCain said, "Sure, all of the above."
Mr. McCain added that he was confident that he would win, but said, "I
have
no illusions about this; this campaign will be a very difficult
challenge."
At a tense, private post-mortem Wednesday morning, worried House
Republicans
demanded that their leader****p come up with a plan to stave off
potentially
devastating losses in November. Republican officials said no leaders or
top
campaign strategists appeared to be in immediate danger of losing their
positions, though in interviews, there was evidence of vast
dissatisfaction,
frustration and discouragement with the party's position.
"The Republican brand is down, and it is going to be hard to get it back,"
said Representative Devin Nunes, Republican of California.
Representative Peter T. King, Republican of New York, said it appeared
that
lawmakers might have to fend for themselves. "You are going to have to run
on who you are and establish some independence, and that is going to be
tougher for some than others," Mr. King said.
Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, the chairman of the National
Republican
Congressional Committee, did not go as far as his predecessor, Mr. Davis,
in
advising members to step away from Mr. Bush. But Mr. Cole, facing growing
restiveness among Republicans about the party leader****p, acknowledged the
tumult in his party's ranks and suggested that his committee would look
for
a change in strategy.
"When you lose three of these in a row you have to get beyond campaign
tactics and take a hard look and ask if there is something wrong with your
product," he said.
Advisers to Mr. McCain said they thought the problems Congressional
Republicans were having would not translate into significant problems for
Mr. McCain. But they said it steeled their resolve to run a campaign that
distinguished Mr. McCain from both Mr. Bush and a Congress where he has
served, in the House and the Senate, since January 1983. They said Mr.
McCain would seek - sometimes explicitly, sometimes not - to distance
himself by speaking critically of what he has described as excessive
spending in Wa****ngton, as well on issues like the environment.
"There's no question that the results in these special elections ****tend
ominously for House Republicans, but they will have little impact on the
presidential election campaign," said Steve Schmidt, a senior adviser to
Mr.
McCain.
The special election results left Democrats and Republicans in rare
agreement about one thing: President Bush looms as a drag on Republicans.
Democratic leaders said a combination of anxiety among voters about the
state of the country and the prospect of an unusually heavy turnout of
African-Americans meant that many new Senate and House seats could be in
play, including those in states like North Carolina that just two years
ago
seemed out of reach for Democrats.
Woody Jenkins, a Louisiana Republican who lost in a special House election
this month, said in an interview that the high African-American turnout in
his district was "probably the decisive factor" in his loss.
The election results also raised questions about what had been a main
Republican strategy for the fall, if Mr. Obama wins the nomination: to
link
Democrats in conservative districts to Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama, campaigning
in
Sterling Heights, Mich., said the outcome in the Mississippi contest, to
fill a "hard-core Republican seat," proved that the strategy would not
work.
"They lost it by eight points, and they did everything they could," Mr.
Obama said. "They ran ads with my face on it, and they said, 'Oh, you look
at this, a former liberal, and his former pastor's said offensive things.
They were trying to do everything in the book to try to scare folks in
Mississippi, and it didn't work."
But Mr. Duncan, the Republican national chairman, said he thought the
strategy would be effective as voters became aware of Mr. Obama's liberal
record in the months ahead.
The latest defeat prompted concern among Republican contributors as Mr.
Obama has lapped Mr. McCain in raising money (though the Republican
National
Committee has outraised the Democratic National Committee).
Scott Reed, a former chief of staff to the Republican National Committee,
said the defeat would dampen fund-raising. "Republican leader****p needs to
really take a good look in the mirror," Mr. Reed said. "They're taking the
party off the cliff."
Republican House members said the political terrain was tilted against
them,
and some expressed despair about the months ahead at the private meeting
on
Wednesday. One House Republican rated the panic expressed at the meeting
as
a 7 on a scale of 10.
Another Republican who spoke at the meeting, Representative Marsha
Blackburn
of Tennessee, said, "We need to, No. 1, prove that we are listening to the
American people, and, No. 2, show that we have a plan of action to respond
to what they are telling us."
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