May 7, 2008
With his victory in North Carolina on Tuesday, Barack Obama took a
giant step toward the Democratic presidential nomination. The irony is
that he is doing this just when Hillary Clinton has finally exposed
his potential weaknesses as a general election candidate.
The Illinois Senator can certainly breathe easier having dodged a loss
in North Carolina, where he once held a big lead. As usual, he swept
the under-30 crowd as well as the educated, upscale liberals in the
central part of the Tar Heel State. He also seems to have fought the
economic issue to a draw, suggesting that his opposition to Mrs.
Clinton's proposal for a moratorium on the 18.4 cent federal gas tax
didn't hurt.
But his victory in North Carolina depended heavily on his overwhelming
(91%) share of the black vote, which made up about a third of the
primary electorate. Mrs. Clinton won 61% of white Democrats in North
Carolina, according to the exit polls, and 65% of white Democrats in
Indiana. Mrs. Clinton also broke even among independents. Clearly Mr.
Obama's early promise of a transracial, postpartisan coalition has
dimmed as the campaign has progressed and voters have learned more
about him.
The controversy over his 20-year association with his pastor, Reverend
Jeremiah Wright, seems to have hurt in particular. About half of North
Carolina Democrats said the Wright issue mattered to them, and they
voted decisively for Senator Clinton. The former First Lady won easily
among late deciders, which also suggests that Mr. Obama's rocky recent
performance has cost him. And the Chicagoan continued his poor showing
with rural voters, especially in white Democratic counties in Indiana.
These are the voters John McCain will have a chance to get in
November.
These are also the data points the Clinton campaign will now press
with the superdelegates who will ultimately decide this contest. But
the bitter political fact for the New York Senator is that her late-
game rally may not matter. To nominate Mrs. Clinton now, party
insiders would have to deny the nomination to the first African-
American with a serious chance to be President, risking a revolt among
their most loyal voting bloc.
The truth is that most Democratic pros are so confident of their
November prospects that they believe either Senator will defeat John
McCain. Mrs. Clinton also showed her own screaming liability
yesterday, with nearly half of all Democrats saying she isn't "honest
or trustworthy." This is the residue of the Clinton scandals, and it
is one reason so many superdelegates have already begun to break their
long co-dependence with Bill and Hillary by declaring for Mr. Obama.
Judging by his victory speech last night, the Illinois rookie has
already begun to pivot to a general election strategy. He tried to
address his vulnerabilities on national security and cultural values.
And he began to recast his personal story as an affirmation of the
American dream =96 in contrast to the image presented by his much-
delayed condemnation of Rev. Wright's anti-American conspiracy
theories.
One habit of modern Democrats is that they tend to fall in love with
candidates who are both unknown and untested. The superdelegates will
now have to decide if Mr. Obama is more like the Jimmy Carter of 1976
=96 or Michael Dukakis.
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