sun-sentinel.com/news/opinion/sfl-rwcol18sbmay18,0,4787790.story
South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com
Republicans try to stop landslide
May 18, 2008
With such an historic and intriguing presidential campaign dominating the
headlines for the past year, it has been easy to forget that there are
also
congressional elections this fall. And these could be just as im****tant,
and
the Republicans could be in big trouble.
After controlling both houses of Congress for much of the Bush years, the
Republicans were relegated to minority party status in 2007. Thus,
entering
the November election, the Democrats have the slimmest of margins in the
Senate and enjoy a comfortable majority in the House. The Republican's
goal,
however, is not to take back both houses of Congress; rather, Republicans
simply hope to prevent a landslide defeat this fall.
Numerous Republican seats in the House and Senate are up for grabs. Of the
fully 32 members of the House who are retiring this year, 25 of them are
Republicans. The practice of gerrymandering - whereby congressional seats
are designed to be so safe for in***bents that challengers have virtually
no
chance of winning - has rendered most Congressional races non-competitive.
However, things are so bad for Republicans this year that several of these
open seats and several others that used to be safe Republican seats are
now
in play.
There are also five retirements in the Senate, all of them seasoned
Republicans. One-third of the Senate is up for election this fall, and the
majority of these seats (21) are held by Republicans. Accordingly, the GOP
is in the precarious position of defending almost twice as many seats,
with
several of their heretofore safe seats now vulnerable. In fact, of the
eight
Senate races currently too tight to call, seven of them are held by
Republicans.
There is a possible parallel to 1974, when Republicans lost special
elections leading up to the November vote, including open seats they
should
have won, such as President Gerald Ford's former House seat in Michigan.
The
defeats foreshadowed a disastrous election for Republicans when, just like
today, an unpopular war, rising gas prices (and a president mired in
scandal
in 1974) resulted in the loss of 43 GOP seats in November.
The ghosts of 1974 are haunting Republicans, because the party has lost
all
five early special elections this year to fill open House seats (in
California, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana and Mississippi). Moreover, the
fact the party lost the Illinois seat that had been held by retiring
Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert, along with two contests in the
Deep
South - seats held by Republicans for decades - suggests troubles this
fall.
Not even negative campaigning saved those seats in 1974. Nor have
Republican
scare tactics worked in the 2008 special elections. Democratic candidates
were linked to Obama's "scary" former preacher, Jeremiah Wright, and
"groovy" House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (pointing out that she was from -
quick,
hide the children - San Francisco!), while Southern voters were warned
that
the Democratic "dog won't hunt."
This fall, it is likely voters will find something even scarier than the
Republican attack ads. That something is President Bush's record of high
gas
and food prices, a faltering economy and housing crisis, record deficits
and
debt, a series of scandals and the embarrassing failure to respond to
Hurricane Katrina, and two seemingly unwinnable wars. As such, both
Republican and Democratic candidates might find that forces beyond their
immediate control - namely President Bush - may seal their electoral fate
one way or the other.
It appears that, in his final months in office, Bush is still relevant,
although not in the way he intended. Bush's legacy could include the fact
that record numbers of Republicans in Congress are opting for early
retirement, and many of those remaining in office are now vulnerable to
defeat - on account of him. This is a president who has gone from being a
lame duck in office to an albatross around his party's neck. And it could
get worse this November.
Robert Watson, PhD. runs the American Studies program at Lynn University.
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