Op-Ed Columnist - Thomas L. Friedman - It's All About Leverage - Op-Ed -
NYTimes.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------June
1, 2008Op-Ed ColumnistIt's All About LeverageBy THOMAS L. FRIEDMANBarack
Obama is getting painfully close to tying himself in knots with allhis
explanations of the conditions under which he would unconditionally
talkwith America's foes, like Iran. His latest clarification was that
there is adifference between "preparations" and "preconditions" for
negotiations withbad guys. Such hair-splitting word games do not inspire
confidence, and theyplay right into the arms of his critics. The last
place he wants to lookuncertain is on national security.The fact is, Mr.
Obama was right to say that he would talk with any foe, ifit would advance
U.S. interests. The Bush team negotiated with Libya to giveup its nuclear
program, even after Libya had accepted responsibility forblowing up
Americans on Pan Am Flight 103. Those negotiations succeeded,though, not
because Mr. Bush was better "prepared," but because, at thetime, shortly
after the invasion of Iraq, Mr. Bush had leverage. Iraq hadyet to fall
apart.Mr. Obama would do himself a big favor by ****fting his focus from
the listof enemy leaders he would talk with to the list of things he would
do aspresident to generate more leverage for America, so no matter who we
have totalk with the advantage will be on our side of the table. That's
whatmatters.Mr. Bush was also right: talking with Iran today would be
tantamount toappeasement - but that's because the Bush team has so
squandered U.S. powerand credibility in the Middle East, and has failed to
put in place anyeffective energy policy, that negotiating with Iran could
only end up withus on the short end. We don't have the leverage - the
allies, thealternative energy, the unity at home, the credible threat of
force - toadvance our interests diplomatically today.As I have argued
before: When you have leverage, talk. When you don't haveleverage, get
some. Then talk.Right now Iran & Friends - Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria -
have a strategy thathas produced leverage for them, and the next U.S.
president is going to haveto think afresh how to counter it. The "Iran &
Friends" strategy is built onfive principles:Principle No. 1: Always seek
"control without responsibility." In Lebanon,Gaza and Iraq, Iran & Friends
have veto power over the politics, withoutbeing held fully responsible for
the electricity. America's allies, bycontrast, tend to have
"responsibility without control."Principle No. 2: Always insist on being
able to both run for politicaloffice and bear arms. In Lebanon, Gaza and
Iraq, America's opponents areboth in the government and have their own
militias.Principle No. 3: Use suicide bombing and targeted assassinations
against anyopponents who get in your way. In Lebanon, Syria is widely
suspected to havebeen behind the spate of killings of anti-Syrian
journalists andparliamentarians. One suicide attack on a major official in
Iraq canneutralize superior U.S. power.Principle No. 4: Use the Internet as
a free command and control system forraising money, recruiting and
operations.Principle No. 5: Cast yourself as the "resistance" to Israel
and America, soany opposition to you is equal to sup****t for Israel and
America and so nomatter how badly you are defeated the mere fact that you
"resisted" meansyou didn't really lose.Do the pro-American Arab moderates
have a counterstrategy with leverage? Ijust got the new book, "The Arab
Center," by Marwan Muasher, the formerforeign minister of Jordan. Retired
Arab statesmen don't often write booksabout their time in office, but Mr.
Muasher has, and his argument is apowerful one: Arab moderates have been
on the defensive because they havebeen "one-dimensional moderates,"
focused only on moderate proposals formaking peace with Israel, while
ignoring other issues im****tant to Arabcitizens: good governance,
political reform, economic well-being, women'srights and religious and
cultural diversity."For the Arab moderates to have credibility, they have
to assume moreresponsibility," says Muasher. America could help by d
elivering on the Arabmoderates' main issue - a Palestinian-Israeli peace
deal. But, ultimately,he said, if the Arab center is to shape the future
and rid "itself of theimage its opponents paint of an apologist for the
West or a compromiser ofArab rights," it will have to meet the challenge
of building "a robust,diverse, tolerant, democratic, and prosperous Arab
society."There has been some promising moderate push back against
extremists in Iraq,Lebanon and the West Bank lately. It's definitely worth
watching, but isstill very frail. America's leverage will be limited as
long our key alliesdo not have a strategy, with weight, to counter the
hard-liners. Here'shoping that once the primary silly season is over, the
McCain and Obamacamps will stop jousting over whether to talk with our
enemies - which wemust - and will start focusing instead about how we and
our friends get morechips to bargain with - which we lack.
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