Planet Heading Toward Climate 'Tipping Point'
OneWorld US June 27, 2008
WA****NGTON, Jun 27 (OneWorld) - Little time remains for brokering a global
deal on climate change, and a successful outcome depends on involvement
and
commitment by both developed and developing countries.
This message was driven home yesterday by renowned economist Sir Nicholas
Stern, speaking at the Center for Global Development in Wa****ngton, D.C.
Stern stressed that by 2050 -- the year often used as a target for
reducing
global emissions -- 8 billion of the global population of 9 billion will
be
living in developing countries. But at least 70 percent of the greenhouse
gases polluting the skies today are attributable to developed countries.
If the two sides cannot overcome current disagreements and work together
to
stop deforestation, develop new technologies for capturing carbon in the
air, and set firm targets for reducing pollution, Stern warned, the "cost
of
inaction will be huge and entail major risks."
Two years ago Stern produced a controversial re****t on the economics of
climate change, commissioned by the British government, arguing that if
governments failed to invest at least 1 percent of their GDP in mitigating
global warming, the end result could be a global decline in GDP of as much
as 20 percent.
Yesterday, Stern acknowledged that his earlier re****t probably
underestimated the risks and the rapidity with which global warming is
taking place, meaning that governments may need to commit 2 percent of GDP
to mitigating climate change.
Stern's warnings came just a day after two other blunt warnings on the
impact of climate change.
On Wednesday, 16 national intelligence agencies acknowledged in a new
National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that global climate change presents a
threat to U.S. national security -- perhaps the most candid *****sment to
surface publicly in Wa****ngton during the Bush era.
In the short term the effect in the United States will be indirect,
resulting from the impact of climate change in other countries, Thomas
Fingar, deputy director of National Intelligence for Analysis testified
before a joint hearing of the energy and intelligence subcommittees of the
House of Representatives.
Fingar stressed the likelihood of increased conflict over water,
especially
in drought-prone Africa, and the growing potential for famine as crops
fail
due to flooding and drought, leading to widespread social unrest and
increased emigration.
Providing assistance to the large numbers of people affected by
humanitarian
disasters, he added, will gradually deplete U.S. resources.
Fingar told Congress that: "The United States depends on a
smooth-functioning international system ensuring the flow of trade and
market access to critical raw materials such as oil and gas, and security
for its allies and partners. Climate change and climate change policies
could affect all of these."
A similar *****sment came from scientist James Hansen, who told a
gathering
at the National Press Club that the world has reached a "tipping point"
and
must act swiftly and decisively to avoid disaster.
Hansen was the first U.S. scientist to warn of the dangers of climate
change
some 20 years ago, and is currently head of NASA's Goddard Institute for
Space Studies.
"There are tipping points in the climate system, which we are very close
to"
Hansen argued, "and if we pass them the dynamics of the system take over
and
carry you to very large changes which are out of your control."
Hansen advocated for the phase-out of all coal-burning power plants by
2030,
except those fitted to capture and bury carbon dioxide, and the imposition
of taxes on coal, oil, and gas producers as a means to pressure them to
reduce emissions.
Stern, meanwhile, called for a "global deal" to reduce emissions by 50
percent by 2050, with at least 80 percent of the reduction coming from the
United States and Europe, and urged rapid development and dissemination of
technologies that facilitate low-carbon growth in developing countries
that
rely on fossil fuels.
"It is possible to move to zero-carbon solutions," Stern said, citing
****fts
that occurred in France, Germany, and Brazil following the oil crisis of
the
late 1970s.
But, he added, action is required urgently in each and every country. "We
need more pressure from below and more leader****p" at the top.
-
--
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Johnny Asia, Guitarist from the Future
http://music.download.com/johnnyasia
http://johnnyasia.info/
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